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Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra. Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

How the Heat have kept their title window wide open

By Reece Johnston | Last updated 1/5/24

Coming off a surprise NBA Finals appearance, the Miami Heat are an improved team that remains poised to challenge for the Eastern Conference crown.

The Heat (20-14), who play at Phoenix on Friday, sit fourth in the Eastern Conference despite dealing with many injuries. Tyler Herro (23.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.4 APG) — who is playing the best basketball of his career — has missed 18 games and All-Stars Jimmy Butler (21 PPG, five RPG, 4.5 APG) and Bam Adebayo (21.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG, four APG) have each missed 10.

Two reasons injuries have not slowed the Heat are coaching — Erik Spoelstra remains the class of NBA coaches — and depth.

With the departure of Max Strus and Gabe Vincent in the offseason, questions were raised about Miami's depth. But replacements Jaime Jaquez Jr. (13.8 PPG, 50.4 FG%), a rookie, and Josh Richardson (10 PPG) have proved to be upgrades.

Former NBA player JJ Redick, an analyst for ESPN, praised Jacquez Jr. earlier in the season, calling him one of the league's top rookies.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is one of the best rookies in the league right now.

Watch the full episode of The Old Man and the Three Things with @jj_redick and @LegsESPN: https://t.co/99wKJegFaL pic.twitter.com/R0mGySU95f
— TheOldMan&TheThree (@OldManAndThree) November 29, 2023

Caleb Martin (11 PPG) and a career season from Duncan Robinson (14.6 PPG, 43.4% from three) have also helped to overcome injuries.

Although both are nearing the end of potential Hall of Fame careers, Kyle Lowry (9.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 43.4 3P%) and Kevin Love (9.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) have played superbly in their roles.

The team's depth was on display in the Heat's 110-96 win recently over the Lakers.

The Miami Heat beat the Lakers by double-digits with less than 10 players who all scored more than 10 points pic.twitter.com/vJlhKot3El
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) January 4, 2024

Another strength for the Heat is their three-point shooting (38.8% from deep, second in the NBA).

With the trade deadline approaching on Feb. 8, one weakness Miami should look to improve is rebounding. It ranks 26th in the league with 41.3 rebounds per game, so acquiring a backup center such as Andre Drummond (8.6 RPG) would help.

Per FanDuel as of Friday, Miami (+1400) has the fourth-best odds to win the Eastern Conference, behind Boston (+130), Milwaukee (+195) and Philadelphia (+500).

The Heat upset both the Bucks and Celtics in the 2023 playoffs as an eighth seed. In the 2022 playoffs, they beat Philadelphia before falling to Boston in a seven-game conference finals series.

Miami is a team that takes its game to another level in the playoffs. Last season, the Heat finished 21st in the NBA with a -0.5 net rating. The rating increased to 1.9 in the playoffs — fourth in the NBA. (Net rating is a team's point differential per 100 possessions.)

A big reason for the Heat's playoff improvements is Butler. Last season he averaged 22.9 points in the regular season and 26.9 in the playoffs.

When Miami failed to trade for Damian Lillard, it was implied the Heat's championship window had closed, but that no longer appears to be the case. With All-Star level play from the team's top three players, great depth, a rookie star and Spoelstra coaching, Miami remains as good as it has ever been in Butler's five-season tenure with the Heat.

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