Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 odds and best bet

We get the first elimination game of what has been a very interesting series Friday night. Boston was in a great position to take control at home in Game 5, but the Bucks stormed back in the 4th thanks to you know who.

Once again, Giannis Antetokounmpo proved he is the best player in the game, scoring 40 points and setting up the Bucks to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with a win at home. He is a marvel to watch, as I am not sure there is another player who combines grace and power as consistently as he does.

For Boston to bring the series back home for a seventh game they have to find a way to rein him in. In Milwaukee's three wins, Giannis has two 40+ point games and a triple-double. That is easier said than done but Boston has a couple of data points where his production and impact have been more "modest" and they won, sometimes it works.

The Celtics are also going to need more production from their top star, Jayson Tatum. He is not at the level of Giannis, but he is supposed to be close right? If he can show that tonight Boston should be competitive. If not this one might get a little weird late. 

Game Info

Boston Celtics (2-3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (3-2)
Friday, May 13, 2022
7:30 p.m. ET
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisc.
ESPN

Odds

Spread: Celtics +1.5 (-110), Bucks -1.5 (-110)
Total: 210.5
Moneyline: Celtics +110, Bucks -130

Best Bet

Milwaukee -1.5

I was high on the Suns Thursday night, figuring they would show some "close to championship" mettle in eliminating the Mavs on the road. That was not the case, as Luka Doncic forced a Game 7 back in Phoenix. That is what Tatum and the Celtics are hoping for Friday night.

A big difference for this spot is that the team that needs to win does not have the best player on the floor. Giannis and Luka are very different players, but they are the most physically dominant players in the game right now. I am not sure it is even close to be honest.

For this closeout game, I am expecting Giannis to be the best player on the floor, yet again. That is hardly a hot take, but in the playoffs, when that is the case, the Bucks are a hard team to fade. Especially with such a small number. 

Playing without forward Khris Middleton in this series has been an adjustment, and I like the momentum they are carrying into Game 6. Lead guard Jrue Holiday played his most complete game of the series in Boston in Game 5 to create the situation for this game, including the biggest defensive play of the playoffs late in the game, sealing the Milwaukee win.

Even more than a year into his time with Bucks, Holiday is still not the consistent force I thought he would be. His efficiency is better at home, though, so I expect another strong game in a supporting role. 

Game 5 turned on 3-point shooting in the 4th quarter with Milwaukee making all six of its attempts while Boston took none. That is a pretty stark contrast — one that is unlikely to be repeated, but I do think it is very fair to expect the Bucks to shoot well at home. Guard Wesley Matthews is making 58% of his shots from behind the arc in the playoffs, and there are other Bucks that have noticeable changes in their marksmanship home and away.

When the Bucks are surrounding Giannis with shot-makers, they are very tough to beat, especially in a playoff setting where Giannis has proven he can rise to the occasion.

We do not need them to dominate to win and cover. Almost any winning scenario will cash the bet, and that is the way to go.

Boston is emerging but the Bucks are not going to let it be at their expense.