Which D-backs Relievers Could Earn More Opportunities?

The Diamondbacks suffered some recent injuries to the bullpen that will greatly affect the outcome of the bullpen competition. Mark Melancon, who was considered one of the few roster locks going into camp, suffered a shoulder injury that could keep him out for months. Corbin Martin is currently undergoing tests on his right shoulder after suffering an awful injury against the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday night.

These two injuries will open up opportunities for other relievers in the competition to make the Opening Day roster. These are the main candidates who could benefit the most from an extended absence from both Melancon and Martin.

RHP Kevin Ginkel

In Ginkel's case, the injuries could elevate his status from a potential favorite to win a spot to a near-lock to make the Opening Day roster. After allowing three unearned runs in his first appearance of the spring, he has held the opposition scoreless in his next six.

Ginkel had a mid-90s fastball that plays heavy due to the sharp downhill angle, late arm-side run, and extension that ranks in the 89th percentile on Statcast. On that angle, his fastball should generate ground ball and miss bats when located at the bottom of the zone. His complements that with a slider that takes on a vertical profile but moves to the glove side instead. The two pitches play off each other well, as evidenced by a 45.0% whiff rate on swings against the slider.

Originally a 22nd round selection that burst onto the scene late in 2019, Ginkel struggled in 2020-2021 and was outrighted to Triple-A Reno. He was able to bounce back in 2022, earning his way back into the big leagues and pitched some important innings down the stretch. With Melancon out, Ginkel could factor into the backend of the pen as a setup man.

RHP Luis Frias

Consistently throwing strikes has been an issue for Frias throughout his career, but this spring he's showing more consistency in that department. In seven appearances in Cactus League play, he's allowed just two runs (one earned) in five innings with two walks and eight strikeouts.

Frias throws upper-90s fastballs from his monstrous frame, with a heavy downhill angle on the ball. He adds in a mid 80s spike curveball and a seldom-used changeup as his secondary pitches. For Frias, the ability to spot that fastball will be key, as it sets up the rest of his arsenal. 

Of all the candidates fighting for the last roster spot, Frias has the upside to be a difference maker in the backend of the D-backs bullpen. For now, he's probably a middle reliever but with more successful outings could find himself in a more important role down the stretch.

RHP Carlos Vargas

The D-backs traded for Vargas this off-season in a prospect-for-prospect swap. The big right-hander has been as good as advertised, throwing 98-100 on both his fastballs and a sharp-breaking slider. When he's attacking the zone, Vargas can generate a lot of whiffs, as evidenced by a 28% strikeout rate in Spring Training games.

His outing against the Giants on Tuesday was the case of what happens when the young fireballer suddenly loses the strike zone. In his previous five appearances, the D-backs No. 20 prospect had issued only one walk while punching out five. The potential upside play for a reliever who has backend, if not closer, upside may be worth the risk of putting him in the big league bullpen on Opening Day.

Like with Frias, if Vargas makes the initial bullpen, his role could increase as he earns manager Torey Lovullo's trust with successful appearances in the big leagues.

RHP Jeurys Familia

The former All-Star was the closer for a Mets squad that won a National League pennant in 2015, but has struggled on the mound since the beginning of the 2019 season. After an off-season spent at Driveline, Familia signed a minor league deal with an invite to big league Spring Training.

Familia has had the best performance of the non-roster bullpen candidates, allowing just one run in 4.2 innings with no walks and four strikeouts in five appearances. Both his fastballs are hitting around 93-95 MPH, a significant drop from his peak when he regularly touched upper 90s, but showing good command. His splitter is his primary secondary offering, in the upper 80s with a lot of downward action.

Since Familia's velocity is down from his peak, he'll need to rely more on his secondary pitches to keep hitter's off balance. When he's been successful in the past, it's been the ability to generate ground balls with his sinker, splitter, and slider. Last year his ground ball rate was a down to 48.7%. He'll need to get that back closer towards his career mark of 55.7% so the loud contact he gives up can be mitigated with good defense.

The D-backs will need to add Familia to the 40-man roster if he makes the team. Melancon will likely open the season on the 60-day injured list, so that  opens a path for him and may end up being the corresponding move.

RHP Cole Sulser

Sulser was claimed off waivers from the Marlins in November. Sulser is two seasons removed from a very strong year with the Baltimore Orioles in which he pitched to a 2.70 ERA and eight saves. So far in five spring outings, he has held the opposition scoreless on two hits, three walks, and five strikeouts. Most of those strikeouts came against the Chicago Cubs yesterday, in which he punched out three of the four batters he faced.

Sulser features a low 90s fastball that plays up due to extension, which Statcast rated in the 86th percentile in 2022, and a vertical movement profile. The pitch holds its line very well and averaged 1.4 inches less drop than the typical 4-seamer with similar velocity, extension, and release. 

His main secondary pitch is a changeup, which he throws nearly 40% of the time, that had 1.3 inches more drop and 0.7 inches horizontal movement than average. Opposing hitters batted .294 with a .367 weighted on base average (wOBA) against the pitch, but Statcast believes the quality of contact didn't match the results with an expected wOBA of .259. He'll also mix in a slider, almost exclusively to right-handed hitters, although it did not get good results in 2022.

Due to having a good changeup and an inconsistent slider, it comes as no surprise that Sulser had reverse platoon splits. Right-handed hitters had a 1.149 OPS while left-handed hitters were .487 in 2022. If we look at his career, the OPS split is .840 against RHH and .509 vs. LHH. The one year he was able to have success against same-handed hitters came in 2021, when he held them to a .646 OPS. Having a reliable putaway pitch against right-handed batters will be key for Sulser to stick in the D-backs bullpen all season.