Padres eyeing trade for former Cy Young winner

Much of the hot stove buzz around the Padres this offseason has focused on the team’s reported desire to cut payroll, and the possibility that a Juan Soto trade could be an ideal way for the Friars to both save money and reload with some new talent.  However, the Padres firmly still intend to get back to winning baseball in 2024, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the team has interest in trading for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.

Nick Martinez has already left to join the Reds, and there is little expectation that either Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha will be re-signed, given the Padres’ apparent budget concerns.  That leaves San Diego in severe need of starting pitching depth behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, and adding a former Cy Young Award winner like Burnes would certainly provide a huge boost.  While more work would need to be done on the back end of the rotation, the Padres would suddenly have a top three comparable to any other starting trio in baseball.

Acee’s piece details some of the financial factors going into the Padres’ winter plans, and notes that “the Padres have inquired about most of the top starters” available in free agency, even if signing one of the bigger-name arms doesn’t seem likely.  Acquiring pitchers on more moderate free agent deals or via the trade market seems much more realistic, though landing Burnes would naturally come at a heavy price.

Firstly, it isn’t yet clear that the Brewers are even going to move Burnes, as much as their own payroll situation might make a deal seem sensible.  Burnes is projected to earn $15.1M in 2024, which is his final year of arbitration eligibility before testing free agency.  Given Milwaukee’s history of spending, it doesn’t seem likely that the Crew will fork over the pricey extension or free-agent deal it would take to keep Burnes in Wisconsin, so there is some merit in moving him this winter.

In essence, it’s the same decision the Padres face with Soto, who is projected for a whopping $33M arbitration salary and will also be a free agent come next winter.  Soto is widely expected to seek a contract upwards of $500M since he’ll be only entering his age-26 season in 2025, and re-signing in San Diego suddenly seems less likely if the Padres are going to be reining in their spending.

Just to get the obvious hypothetical out of the way, a trade of Soto for Burnes in some fashion might not be too feasible for either San Diego or Milwaukee.  It obviously wouldn’t be a straight one-for-one swap, yet it’s very fun to imagine a blockbuster swap that would see the Padres get the pitching upgrade they need while the offense-needy Brewers land an elite bat.  Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has plenty of creative trades on his resume, and last winter’s three-team swap with the Braves and Athletics shows that Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold is also no stranger to bold moves.

This all being said, the trade package San Diego reportedly wanted from the Yankees is perhaps more instructive as to what the Padres are looking to achieve with a Soto deal.  If the Friars are looking for a mix of win-now talent, prospects, and salary relief (perhaps involving unloading the contract of a player like Trent Grisham), then very few teams can meet that asking price.  Obviously that reported Yankees offer might represent a high starting ask from Preller and his demands might lessen as the offseason develops, yet a smaller-market team like the Brewers that particularly values prospects as the backbone of their organization isn’t going to make a big splurge for one year of control over Soto.  If anything, Arnold might be looking for a similar return for Burnes — a trade package that helps set the Brewers up for years to come, not a particular win-now push for 2024.

If a direct trade between the two teams might not work, it is possible another three-team deal could be explored, and Acee suggests that a three-team trade might be the only way for the Padres to fully achieve most of their goals in dealing Soto.  Regarding Milwaukee specifically, perhaps the Padres could move Soto to a third club, then funnel some of the young talent they’d receive from that mystery team towards the Brewers to then add Burnes for San Diego’s rotation.  The permutations here are pretty much endless, and there’s a reason why three-team trades are relatively rare, particularly three-team trades involving some of the game’s biggest superstars.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored Burnes’ trade market, and the Padres weren’t one of the 12 teams Steve identified as the best possible fits for the right-hander.  This doesn’t mean the Padres (or even one of the other clubs not cited) absolutely couldn’t emerge as something of a surprise suitor, and the team’s interest altogether indicates that Preller isn’t planning a fire sale of the roster.