Offseason outlook for the Washington Nationals

The Nationals were a little more competitive than expected into late summer. They’ve improved on last year’s 107-loss showing but are likely headed for a fourth straight last-place finish in the NL East. The rebuild continues.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Stephen Strasburg, RHP: $105M through 2026 ($80M in deferred payments between 2028-30)
• Keibert Ruiz, C: $48M through 2030 (deal includes club options for ’31 and ’32)
• Patrick Corbin, LHP: $35M through 2024 ($10M in deferred payments between 2025-26)
• Trevor Williams, RHP: $7M through 2024

Option Decisions

• Victor Robles, CF: $3.3M club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines

2024 commitments: $85M
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $195M

Arbitration-Eligible Players

• Victor Robles
• Dominic Smith
• Kyle Finnegan
• Lane Thomas
• Tanner Rainey
• Michael Chavis
• Ildemaro Vargas
• Victor Arano
• Hunter Harvey
• Luis García (potential Super Two)
• Carter Kieboom (potential Super Two)

Non-tender candidates: Robles, Smith, Chavis, Vargas, Arano, Kieboom

Free Agents

• Carl Edwards Jr.

The Nationals may have already made what’ll be their most consequential decisions for the upcoming season. With manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo in the final years of their respective contracts, the possibility existed for large-scale organizational changes. Instead, Washington has locked in leadership stability in recent weeks. Martinez signed a two-year extension with a team option for 2026; Rizzo inked a multi-year pact of unreported length not long after.

Rizzo has been at the helm for nearly a decade and a half, a tenure exceeded only by Brian Cashman (Yankees) and John Mozeliak (Cardinals) among current baseball operations leaders. Martinez will be headed into his seventh season leading the dugout. Both have had success in Washington before their ongoing rebuild — highlighted by their 2019 World Series victory — offering reason for optimism they can lead the franchise back to success.

That’s unlikely to happen in 2024, however. The Nationals have made progress this year, as their win percentage is up from 34.5% to 43.9%. After finishing as the worst team in the majors in 2022, they own the game’s 24th-best record this season. Yet there’s still a wide discrepancy between the quality of the current roster and one that’s capable of competing for a playoff spot.

It’s most evident in the rotation, which is allowing exactly five earned runs per nine with the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Washington has had rare stability for a rotation performing at that level. Only six pitchers have logged even 30+ innings as starters.

On the plus side, their best performers have been a pair of young players who could be key pieces on the next competitive Washington club. Josiah Gray (4.00) and MacKenzie Gore (4.42) have the best ERAs of the group. Neither pitcher has developed into a top-of-the-rotation arm. They each still issue a few too many walks, while Gore has battled the home run ball. Gray’s production has tailed off in the second half. These issues aside, both hurlers have performed as big league-capable starters over a full season. They’ve done enough to secure spots in next year’s rotation when the club will hope at least one takes a step forward to solidify himself as an above-average starter.

There’s not as much optimism for the rest of the group. Jake Irvin doesn’t miss bats and looks best suited as a depth option. Joan Adon has never found big-league success. Veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams are each under contract through 2024 and have taken their share of innings but without great production. Corbin is on his third straight season with an ERA above 5.00 as he plays on a lofty free-agent contract that went awry after one year (albeit one in which he was a key contributor to the World Series win). The signing of Williams to a two-year deal last winter hasn’t panned out.

Stephen Strasburg remains on the roster after the surprising reversal of course on his planned retirement. Continuing to devote him a 40-man spot when he’s unlikely to ever pitch again is a bizarre decision on the organization’s part, though it’s not particularly consequential at this point of the rebuild.

Washington could run things back with the same rotation group, as everyone is either under contract or club control. Former first-round draftee Cade Cavalli could break back into the mix midseason after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The Nats have options to plug innings, which isn’t true of every rebuilding team. Still, aside from a step forward from one of Gore or Gray, they couldn’t project much better results than they received this season. It’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one starter who could push Irvin back to Triple-A or Williams into the long relief role he’s had for the bulk of his career.

It’s hard to envision the Nats spending at the top of the market. They could offer a rotation spot to a rebound candidate like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas or Alex Wood in the hope that player could serve as a midseason trade chip. If they wanted to secure some stability over multiple years without making a huge financial commitment, they could consider the likes of Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

They’ll probably also add an arm or two to the relief corps, as Washington has the lowest bullpen strikeout rate in the league. It’s not time to play at the top of the market for Josh Hader or pursue a veteran closer in the Craig Kimbrel mold. There are a number of middle relievers who’ll be available on one or two-year deals that could add swing-and-miss to the group. Ryne Stanek, Shintaro Fujinami and Keynan Middleton are among the power arms available in free agency.

Any free agent pickups would join a relief corps led by Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and quietly effective waiver pickup Robert Garcia. The Nats could listen to trade offers on Finnegan or Harvey, though they’re not under pressure to make a deal with both pitchers eligible for arbitration through 2025.

There’s more reason for optimism on the other side of the ball. Washington has the potential for a strong future position player core, most of which was acquired in trades of their last group of stars. Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams are already playing regular roles on the big league club. Abrams has had a solid season to secure the shortstop job. Ruiz hasn’t broken through, but he’ll get every opportunity behind the plate after last winter’s $50M extension that runs through 2030.

Riley Adams is a good complementary backstop, so there’s no need to add a catcher. They’ll likely look to bring in infield help around Abrams. They’ve closed the season giving regular run to Dominic Smith, Luis García and Ildemaro Vargas around the infield. Smith has hit .254/.324/.361 in 571 plate appearances after signing a $2M deal last offseason and could be non-tendered.

García turns 24 next May and may be young enough to get another shot at second base. It might be his last chance. The left-handed hitter owns a .265/.299/.382 line with nine homers over 466 trips to the plate this season. He’s now a .265/.292/.394 hitter in 1229 PA and 320 MLB games over parts of four seasons. While García has plus contact skills, he hasn’t shown a discerning plate approach nor much power. The profile is built around a largely empty batting average right now. That’d be more tenable if García were a plus defender, but public metrics have graded him as a below-average second baseman over his career.

While García has youth and prospect pedigree on his side, there’s no argument for giving Vargas the third base job. The journeyman infielder has a .251/.305/.363 slash over a career-high 274 plate appearances. He’s a versatile defender with contact skills but limited offensive upside, much better suited for a utility role. He has held down the hot corner since the Nats traded Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. They’ll need to look outside the organization again this winter.

Last year’s signing of Candelario to a $5M deal after he was non-tendered by Detroit worked out perfectly. They’ll have a hard time repeating that level of success — most free-agent rebound fliers don’t bounce back the way Candelario did — but the Nationals will probably take a shot on a similar style of player. Candelario himself has likely played his way into a three-plus-year deal that’ll take him out of Washington’s price range. Players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Joey Wendle should be available on a one-year pact, or Nick Senzel or Santiago Espinal could be non-tendered or traded for minimal return.

A one-year stopgap is probably all that’ll be required. Former first-round pick Brady House played his way to Double-A, where he hit .324/.358/.475 in 36 games at age 20. While it’s too soon to count on House as a key contributor for 2024, he could debut late next year and hopefully seize the third base job headed into ’25.

Washington also has high-end prospects approaching the big league outfield. James Wood (acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto deal) and the 2023 draft’s No. 2 overall pick Dylan Crews are widely regarded as top 10 minor league talents in the sport. Wood joined House in reaching Double-A before his 21st birthday.  Wood ran an impressive .248/.344/.492 line with 18 homers across 87 games, and while the power-hitting outfielder struck out a fair amount, that’s to be expected for a 6’6″ hitter facing far older pitching. Crews shredded SEC arms at LSU and reached Double-A by the end of his draft year.

As with House, it’d be optimistic to expect either player at Nationals Park in the first half of next season. A promotion towards the middle or tail end of the year seems attainable, again offering hope they could be everyday players by 2025. It’s unlikely all three hit the ground running at the MLB level — even a lot of top prospects struggle out of the gate — but it’s an enviable collection of approaching talent.

When Wood and Crews arrive, they’d likely join Lane Thomas in the everyday outfield. The 28-year-old owns a .270/.319/.472 slash with 27 homers through 658 trips to the plate. He has destroyed left-handed pitching while hitting at a league-average clip versus righties. While Thomas may be more of a complementary piece on a first-division club, he has proven an excellent find for Washington — which acquired him from the Cardinals for the final half-season of Jon Lester’s career in 2021.

Thomas is under arbitration control through 2025. His name surfaced in trade speculation this summer, though there’s no indication the Nats got all that close to making a deal. While they’ll surely find interest again, he doesn’t seem any more likely to move next winter than he did at the deadline. The organization’s long-term financial slate is clear enough that Thomas makes sense as an extension candidate. A guarantee in the $25M-30M range that buys out his remaining two arbitration seasons and first free agent year (2026) with a club option for a second could be mutually beneficial. It’d lock in some financial certainty for a relatively late bloomer while ensuring Thomas doesn’t hit free agency before Washington is ready to contend.

As with third base, the Nats will probably bring in a veteran outfielder to hold the fort for a season. Former top prospect Victor Robles has missed the bulk of the year and seems a non-tender possibility. Neither Alex Call nor Jake Alu have provided any offense. Stone Garrett was a solid right-handed platoon option but suffered a gruesome leg injury that ended his season. Jacob Young doesn’t bring much offensive upside to the table in center field.

Washington guaranteed Corey Dickerson $2.25M to add a veteran bat to the outfield last offseason. They’ll probably aim a little higher this time around. The likes of Hunter Renfroe and Adam Duvall could secure an annual salary in the $6M-10M range (perhaps for two years in Duvall’s case). Ramón Laureano or Seth Brown could be available following a non-tender. A corner outfield acquisition could take some DH at-bats from Joey Meneses — who has hit at a league-average level in his follow-up to an excellent small-sample showing as a 30-year-old rookie — if Wood or Crews force their way to the big leagues early on.

There should generally be some short-term flexibility for Rizzo and his front office. Strasburg, Corbin, Williams and Ruiz are the only players with guaranteed contracts for next season. They have a deep class of arbitration-eligible players but none who are going to break the bank individually.

It’s less clear if there’s any appetite for a notable multi-year commitment. The franchise’s financial picture has been a question for a few seasons. The MASN rights dispute with the Orioles interfered with the Lerner family’s efforts to sell the club last year. It’s possible the Lerners again try to explore offers, though the TV situation isn’t much clearer now than it was 12 months ago.

The organization has sliced player payroll over the past few years. That’s standard procedure for a team amidst a rebuild, yet the ownership uncertainty takes on more significance as the club gets closer to contention. While the Strasburg and Ruiz contracts are the only ones running beyond next season, they’re on the hook for deferred payments of $15M annually to Max Scherzer through 2028 and owe Corbin another $10M in deferred salary over two more seasons. Strasburg’s contract won’t be paid in full until 2030.

Against those financial questions, the roster is beginning to take shape. The Nationals could have a viable position player core in place by 2025 depending on the progressions of Crews, Wood and House (as well as Abrams and Ruiz at the big league level). The pitching is less impressive overall, though Gray, Gore and Cavalli offer some intriguing individual pieces. Washington isn’t ready to compete yet, but things could be a lot more exciting at this time next year.