MLB predictions 2024: Expert picks for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year

Rookie of the Year

Although the National League favorite for Rookie of the Year honors this season is a pitcher, I lean toward position players in this market. Twenty of the past 24 Rookie of the Year winners (83.3%) accumulated more playing time on offense (including Shohei Ohtani in 2018).

Moreover, Wins Above Replacement, or "WAR" ranking, has become increasingly crucial to award voters in the past decade. 

Eighteen of the past 24 Rookie of the Year winners (75%) finished atop the rookie leaderboard in their respective league in WAR, with an average ranking of 1.46 among the 24 award recipients. Moreover, that sample includes the pandemic-shortened 2019 season, where Devin Williams (sixth in NL) and Kyle Lewis (second in AL) claimed honors and skewed the data.

Playing time and WAR are most of the equation for narrowing down the ROY field. However, WAR potential — or average WAR as a component of playing time — is also worth assessing in case these players exceed playing time expectations.

Here are my projected WAR leaders among rookies for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel, and my composite ranking — which analyzes the field on projection data, including total WAR, WAR Potential (per plate appearance), and OPS.

American League

Rookie of the Year is essentially a volume-based award, but unlike last season's AL favorite and eventual winner Gunnar Henderson (+250), playing time for the AL favorites in 2024 is a much bigger question mark.

The odds are short on Evan Carter, but he's the safest bet for playing time, slated for 550 plate appearances or more by every projection system. However, popular picks like Jackson Holliday (range 483-610), Wyatt Langford (range 432-599) and Junior Caminero (range 245-526) have a much more comprehensive range of outcomes depending on organizational preference and depth.

Caminero is my favorite prospect of the bunch. He has the same power upside as Langford but can play on the infield. I poked his odds early in the event that a strong spring earned Caminero a roster spot and moved his market in line with the other top choices. Otherwise, I'd add more on Caminero — likely at a better price — when he's called up a few weeks into the season.

By average WAR (per plate appearance), Holliday projects as the best AL rookie — and Carter is second. Still, I'd need to be sure that Holliday is starting on Opening Day to take a short price.

Baltimore has a glut of MLB-ready bats, including Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Any of them could eventually supplant players like Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O'Hearn, Austin Hayes and Anthony Santander. Roster Resource lists Holliday as the Opening Day second baseman, but the uber-talented 20-year-old may get more seasoning (36 games at Double-A, 18 at Triple-A).

Like Holliday, Langford mashed his way through the minors, but in an even more limited sample (37 total games). He has the best OPS projection among AL rookies but doesn't have a guaranteed job — slated as the Opening Day DH for the Rangers. If Langford hits, they'll find a way to get him 550 plate appearances.

Still, the minor league sample — while impressive — is incredibly limited, and he could easily wind up with closer to 450 PA in the big leagues, which won't be enough volume to win — especially without playing the field and accumulating defensive WAR.

I prefer Colt Keith from a guaranteed volume perspective at quadruple the price. The bat-first infielder (68 extra-base hits in the minors last season) signed a pre-debut extension with the Tigers in January, should play every day against righties and bat in the heart of the order. I'm curious how much the Tigers let Keith play against lefties — he hit well against same-sided pitching in the minors last year — and I think there's upside in his plate appearance projection (range 477-558).

Catchers rarely win this award, but Yankees backstop Austin Wells has a first-round pedigree, a guaranteed job and significant playing time upside (projected PA range 286-475) at long odds. If Wells hits the upper end of that projection, he should surpass 15 home runs and accumulate greater than 2 WAR.

Lastly, watch Twins prospect Brooks Lee — the eighth overall pick from 2022 — as a longshot. He'll begin the season at Triple-A but could get called up earlier than expected and greatly exceed playing time expectations (range 127-547 PA) if injuries crop up in Minnesota.

National League

High-level imports who come over in their prime tend to lock down Rookie of the Year honors, making betting on the NL Rookie of the Year race difficult for 2024.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto projects for 3. o to 4.3 WAR, Jung Hoo Lee projects for 2.4 to 3.1 WAR, and Shota Imanaga projects for 1.7 to 3.1 WAR. No other contender — including Jackson Chourio (range 1.1 to 2.0 WAR) — has an average expectation of 2 WAR or higher this season.

We'll discuss Yamamoto as a Cy Young contender later — he's my pick if he stays healthy. I don't have much interest in betting against him in this market. Still, I'm not betting on Yamamoto at a short price to win an award when one injury could derail that campaign. I'd want at least +300.

I'm intrigued by Lee, but I found a more exciting way to bet on the Giants' outfielder as a potential regular-season stat leader, which I'll discuss later this week. I'd instead take Imanaga — who has similar WAR projections and longer odds — if I'm betting against Yamamoto.

Milwaukee will likely use DL Hall — who came over in the Corbin Burnes trade — as a swingman, but he should accumulate a healthy number of strikeouts regardless of his role and surpass 2 WAR if he tosses at least 100 innings. Milwaukee needs innings and excels at developing pitchers; Hall could be their second-best starting pitcher.

Among the hitters, Jordan Lawlar and Jackson Merrill are the pair I'm watching most closely.

Lawlar is getting a shot to earn an Opening Day roster spot, and I expect him to overtake Geraldo Perdomo as Arizona's shortstop by the end of the season. Merrill is slated as the Padres' Opening Day DH, but he only has 46 games in Double-A.

I'll continue to monitor both young hitters throughout spring. Still, I expect one of the more mature international free agents to capture NL rookie honors in 2024.

Rookie of the Year Bets

• AL: Colt Keith (+1600, 0.1u) at bet365
• AL: Junior Caminero (+1200, 0.1u) at Caesars
• AL: Austin Wells (+7500, 0.02u) at Caesars

Most Valuable Player

Before breaking down the potential list of MVP candidates for 2024, let's talk about what matters and what does not matter to MVP voters.

Important:

• Position: In the past two decades, two pure pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander) have won MVP trophies (three in 34 years). Outfielders and corner infielders have won more than 75% of the time, including 15 of the 18 most recent recipients (second baseman Jose Altuve and DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani are the only exceptions).
• OPS Ranking: Counts twice as much as a player's ranking in batting average, RBI, home runs, stolen bases or team winning percentage. Every (offensive) MVP winner since 2001, except for Ichiro Suzuki, has had an OPS greater than .850.
• WAR: Twenty-six of the past 28 MVP winners (93%) ranked in the top three in WAR in their respective leagues. Nineteen winners (68%) finished as the league leader in WAR.

Irrelevant

• Making History: Forty-six players have posted a 30-30 season at the MLB level, but on average, those players have finished 9.25 in MVP voting and only four of those 46 seasons (8.7%) produced an MVP trophy (Jose Canseco in 1988, Jimmy Rollins in 2007, Mookie Betts in 2018, and Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2023).
• Making the Playoffs: Twelve of the past 48 MVP winners (25%) failed to make the postseason. Perhaps more importantly, in 2022, none of the three finalists in either league made the postseason, the most dramatic shift in the history of MVP voting.

Inconclusive

• Teammates Competing for Votes: Since 2000, the closest teammate in MVP voting, relative to the actual MVP winners, ranked around 10th, on average. One pair of teammates finished one-two (Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds, 2001). Four additional pairs finished in the top three of the voting, including Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in 2022. Five MVP winners finished with multiple teammates in the Top 10, including Ronald Acuna Jr. last season (alongside Matt Olson, 4th, and Austin Riley, 7th). Similarly, there are four instances where three teammates finished in the Top 10 without winning any awards.

Here are my projected WAR leaders in each league for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel, and my composite ranking — which analyzes the field on projection data, including total WAR, WAR Potential (per plate appearance) and OPS.

American League

With Shohei Ohtani departing for the National League and Aaron Judge needing to manage his toe injury for the remainder of his career, the American League MVP field is significantly more wide-open for 2024 than in years past.

You can probably slate contract-year Juan Soto for his first MVP award this season. I've consistently — and thus far unsuccessfully — bet on the 25-year-old to take home NL MVP honors. I'm curious to see if Soto changes his swing (career 32% flyball rate and 36.6% pull rate vs. 37.5% and 41.1% MLB averages in 2024) for the short porch at Yankee Stadium, and if he takes a more aggressive approach with a new club (career 58.8% zone swing rate — about 10% below MLB average).

Still, taking +600 on a player who could switch leagues again at the deadline — if the Yankees are struggling — is enough to scare me off.

I have to poke Yordan Alvarez on principle, although there are better ways to play him in the stat leader markets (more on that later this week). Alvarez has the longest odds alongside Judge and Soto, who — due to OPS separation — form a clear top three in the AL field.

Jose Ramirez is the perfect example of how you should approach handicapping and betting on MVP markets from a mathematical perspective. Ramirez typically ranks among the AL leaders in total projected WAR (5th for 2024), but his odds have fluctuated from one year to the next. I skipped Ramirez last year at +1600, but I'm back in this season — as I was in 2022 — at nearly double the price.

I'm still in on Adley Rutschman, too — who I bet last year at +4000. Rutschman ranks as a top-seven AL player by both total projected WAR and WAR potential, and he has posted consecutive five-win seasons. I don't think we've seen his career year yet, and the Orioles find a way to play him every day.

My two favorite AL MVP bets for 2024 are the dynamic athletes I expect to become the faces of the league — if they aren't already — for the next generation of fans: Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr.

Over the final four months of the 2023 season (July 1 onward), Rodriguez (4.1) and Witt (4.0) ranked first and second, respectively, in WAR in the American League and were only surpassed by the trio of NL MVP finalists over the same span (Mookie Betts 4.8, Freddie Freeman 4.3, Ronald Acuna Jr. 4.1). Seven-win seasons are within reach for this pair of 23-year-old superstars.

National League

Acuna is the best player in the National League by every data point I use. Still, Acuna is dealing with knee soreness in spring training, and even if he misses a couple of weeks to rest in the middle of the season, it could significantly impact his MVP chances.

And whether Acuna misses time or not, I expect Austin Riley to take a step forward and post a monster season in 2024. The third baseman has been a five-win player on average over the past three seasons, but Riley hit another level in the second half of 2023, posting a .968 OPS, 153 wRC+ and 21 homers in 321 plate appearances while ranking fifth in NL WAR (3.4), just behind teammate Matt Olson (3.8) who popped 25 homers with an 181 wRC+ over the same span.

Riley ranks sixth and Corbin Carroll is fifth by projected NL WAR for 2024; Acuna, Betts, Freeman, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the only players ahead of them, each at half the price point.

It's difficult to project progression for Carroll after posting a six-win season in a dominant Rookie of the Year campaign, and a lingering shoulder issue could ultimately derail a season — or his career. Still, very few players have the skills to hit 30 home runs and lead the league in steals. Carroll also has ground to gain as a defender after posting a negative WAR in the outfield last season.

Alongside Acuna and Carroll in the NL and Rodriguez and Witt in the AL, Elly De La Cruz has an elite combination of power and speed, and if or when the skills mesh with the plate approach, you're going to want a big number on him to do big things — the gains will be atomic. Although his stats tanked after a hot start (131 wRC+ in June, 72 in July, 69 in August, 71 in September), De La Cruz's chase rate — and overall approach — seemingly improved late in the year.

There's no difference between a losing MVP ticket at +2500 or +125000, but very few players in MLB history have ever had the upside of De La Cruz, and betting futures are mostly speculating on the upside.

My favorite NL MVP bet for 2024 is Bryce Harper, who doesn't forecast as well by 2024 projections or my weighted rankings if you include his injury-laden sample from recent seasons. After winning the 2021 NL MVP (170 wRC+), Harper had a down 2022 campaign (139 wRC+), which ended in Tommy John surgery.

Harper returned on an accelerated timeline last year — nowhere near 100% in the first half (115 wRC+) — before finding his stroke in July, closer to his initial injury timeline.

In the second half of 2023, Harper posted a 166 wRC+ with 18 home runs in 296 plate appearances, right back to his MVP form and ahead of his 2021 power pace. Due to the injury-marred sample from the past two seasons, Harper's 2024 projections are selling him short (range 26-30 homers, 139-142 wRC+).

Playing first base instead of the outfield reduces Harper's total projected WAR but increases the probability that he plays 150 games. With total health, I expect 70+ extra-base hits and a real shot at a third MVP trophy.

Compared to the remainder of the NL field, Harper is the best candidate with no teammate taking some shine away from him.

MVP Bets

• AL: Adley Rutschman (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• AL: Bobby Witt Jr. (+2300, 0.1u) at Parx
• AL: Jose Ramirez (+3000, 0.1u) at Parx
• AL: Julio Rodriguez (+1300, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• AL: Yordan Alvarez (+1000, 0.1u) at Caesars
• NL: Austin Riley (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• NL: Bryce Harper (+1200, 0.2u) at FanDuel
• NL: Corbin Carroll (+2000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• NL: Elly de La Cruz (+12000, 0.01u) at bet365

Cy Young

Historically, four basic statistics correlate most strongly to Cy Young winners: Wins, ERA, strikeouts and WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched).

However, there has been a clear upward trend in recent seasons regarding WAR and Cy Young winners — which mirrors the trend between WAR and MVPs.

Until 2003, the Cy Young winner finished at least 1 WAR behind the pitching WAR leader (for that league) 48% of the time. Since 2004, that difference has only occurred six times (19%), a decrease of 29%.

Thirteen of the past 16 Cy Young winners have finished in the top three in their respective leagues in pitching WAR — the only exceptions being Blake Snell (7th in 2018 and 6th in 2023) and Robbie Ray (7th in 2021).

Here are my projected pitching WAR leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel, and my composite ranking – which analyzes the field on projection data, including total WAR, WAR Potential (per plate appearance), strikeout rate, and pitch modeling metrics. Note: because I had to filter for relief pitchers, the composite rankings for pitchers show a more comprehensive range than the scale for pitchers.

American League

Throughout the second half of last season, I mentioned that my 2024 Cy Young card would start with Grayson Rodriguez.

There were growing pains for Rodriguez as he harnessed his command and modified his pitch mix early last season, but everything came together in the second half (2.58 ERA, 2.76 FIP). Among all starting pitchers, Rodriguez ranked fourth by Stuff+ (126) and third by Pitching+ (111) — behind only Nick Pivetta and Zack Wheeler — after getting recalled in July.

He's also set for a workload increase, and could push near 200 strikeouts after tossing 163 frames between the minors and majors last season; projections call for 141 to 175 innings in 2024, and I like the upper end of that projection.

Tarik Skubal is another pitcher we have regularly backed from game to game. There are injury concerns — Skubal's past two seasons have been shortened by 2022 flexor tendon surgery — and it's difficult to forecast more than a 2x workload increase after tossing 80 innings last season (projected range 103 to 171 innings).

Still, Skubal dominated on paper (2.80 ERA, 2.28 xERA, 2.56 xFIP) and ranked as a top-20 starter by Pitching+ (106) last season. He led all pitchers in WAR (2.9) in the second half.

However, it's also worth noting that Skubal has better command than stuff and faced a very light schedule last season (nine of 15 starts against the Angels, Athletics, Guardians, Royals or White Sox).

A pitcher with big stuff (like Rodriguez) has a higher ceiling than a pitcher with excellent command (like Skubal). Conversely, better command provides a higher floor.

Speaking of stuff, monitor Carlos Rodon throughout spring training; he's a viable longshot if he returns to his 2022 form.

The Mariners have the best starting staff in baseball, and I like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert as Cy Young candidates for 2024. Both pitchers posted a 106 Stuff+ last season with above-average Location+ ratings (110 for Kirby, 102 for Gilbert), and each hit the 190-inning mark.

By Pitching+, Kirby (109) tied with Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole (109) and Pablo Lopez (109) in the AL. Spencer Strider (112) was the only pitcher ahead of them.

Both righties are 26 years old, pitch in an excellent home park and seemingly have another level to unlock. If I had to choose, I would take Kirby — but I'm happy to play both.

The pitcher between them on the rankings board — Cole Ragans (2.64 ERA, 2.49 FIP in 12 starts for Kansas City) — is a popular longshot selection for 2024. Still, Ragans only tossed 124 professional innings last season; it seems likelier that he will fall around 150 innings than the upside projection provided by Steamer (projected range 111-177).

Lastly, I like Hunter Brown to emerge as the Astros' best starter in 2024. Brown compared favorably to a young Justin Verlander before last season and pitched much better than his 5.09 ERA might indicate (4.27 xERA, 3.52 XFIP, 3.74 SIERA).

Additionally, Brown added a slider this offseason and seems poised to take a step forward after some growing pains and command problems. He projected as an above-average pitcher (104 Stuff+, 100 Location+) while learning on the job, and I expect significant gains — and closer to 180 innings — from Brown in 2024.

For updated MLB odds on all 2024 futures at a variety of sportsbooks, be sure to visit and bookmark our MLB odds page.

National League

Spencer Strider deserves to be the National League favorite for Cy Young. The mustachioed maestro projects as the league leader in both total WAR and average WAR per inning pitched and third by both strikeout rate and pitch modeling metrics.

He won't strike out nearly the same volume of hitters as Strider, but I project Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the second-best starter in the NL, and I viewed his fair odds closer to +1000. The 25-year-old should have elite command over a deep arsenal featuring a devastating splitter.

The only concern for Yamamoto is playing time (projection range 168-192 innings). The Dodgers plan to use a six-man rotation during parts of the season and may look to load manage their $325-million man.

Despite that concern, I'm also interested in backing fellow Dodgers Tyler Glasnow and Bobby Miller for the Cy Young. On a per-inning basis, Glasnow (121 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+) is about the closest you get to approximating Strider (125 Stuff+, 112 Pitching+), and the six-man rotation should permit Glasnow to toss a career-high in innings (projected range 125 to 154). Most pitchers need 200 innings to enter the Cy Young discussion; Glasnow is effective enough to enter the conversation at 150.

Miller is a safer volume bet than Glasnow and posted equally impressive pitch-modeling metrics last season (123 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+). I expect Miller's strikeout rate to eventually catch up to his velocity (averaged 99 mph, first among starting pitchers), but I'm not sure if he'll get enough innings to compete in 2024. Still, I'm willing to find out at 50-1.

Freddy Peralta now sits atop the Brewers' rotation and makes an exciting longshot with his impressive efficiency, generating more than 200 strikeouts in a career-high 165 innings last season. He has an injury history and is on the smaller side for a pitcher, but he excelled in the second half of 2023 (2.81 ERA, 2.54 xFIP), ranking third in NL WAR (2.2). If Peralta can climb to 180 innings, he's in the mix.

Jesus Luzardo has been a personal favorite for a few years and a prospect I expected to win a Cy Young at his peak. I have to bet Luzardo, coming off of a 200-strikeout season, at long odds, even though nothing under the hood is overly impressive (102 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+, 3.96 xERA, 3.72 xFIP), aside from his upper-90s heat (averaged 96.8 mph – the hardest fastball by a southpaw starter). Luzardo could get more volume and push closer to 200 innings in 2024.

I hate to leave off his teammate — the electric 20-year-old Eury Perez (125 Stuff+). Still, Perez only tossed 127 professional innings last season, which ended prematurely with joint inflammation. And I doubt that Perez can reach 180 innings in 2024 (projected range 124-153).

Cy Young Bets

• AL: Grayson Rodriguez (+3000, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• AL: George Kirby (+2000, 0.1u) at Superbook
• AL: Hunter Brown (+20000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
• AL: Logan Gilbert (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• AL: Tarik Skubal (+2200, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• NL: Bobby Miller (+5000, 0.1u) at Caesars
• NL: Freddy Peralta (+6000, 0.1u) at Superbook
• NL: Jesus Luzardo (+4000, 0.1u) at Caesars
• NL: Tyler Glasnow (+2300, 0.1u) at Parx
• NL: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1600, 0.25u) at ESPN BET

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Zerillo's 2024 Player Awards Futures

Cy Young

• AL: Grayson Rodriguez (+3000, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• AL: George Kirby (+2000, 0.1u) at Superbook
• AL: Hunter Brown (+20000, 0.01u) at FanDuel
• AL: Logan Gilbert (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• AL: Tarik Skubal (+2200, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• NL: Bobby Miller (+5000, 0.1u) at Caesars
• NL: Freddy Peralta (+6000, 0.1u) at Superbook
• NL: Jesus Luzardo (+4000, 0.1u) at Caesars
• NL: Tyler Glasnow (+2300, 0.1u) at Parx
• NL: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1600, 0.25u) at ESPN BET

Most Valuable Player

• AL: Adley Rutschman (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• AL: Bobby Witt Jr. (+2300, 0.1u) at Parx
• AL: Jose Ramirez (+3000, 0.1u) at Parx
• AL: Julio Rodriguez (+1300, 0.25u) at FanDuel
• AL: Yordan Alvarez (+1000, 0.1u) at Caesars
• NL: Austin Riley (+2500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• NL: Bryce Harper (+1200, 0.2u) at FanDuel
• NL: Corbin Carroll (+2000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
• NL: Elly de La Cruz (+12000, 0.01u) at bet365

Rookie of the Year

• AL: Colt Keith (+1600, 0.1u) at bet365
• AL: Junior Caminero (+1200, 0.1u) at Caesars
• AL: Austin Wells (+7500, 0.02u) at Caesars