Arizona Diamondback Ketel Marte. Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

MLB Playoff picks: Best bets for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NLCS Game 3

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 10/19/23

The Philadelphia Phillies jumped on the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the NLCS and cruised to a 10-0 victory at home, and now the series shifts to Arizona for a crucial Game 3. Ranger Suarez will be on the mound for Philly, while the D-Backs will roll with rookie Brandon Pfaadt.

As we prepare for Game 3, let's go through our two favorite bets for the NLCS matchup.

First five innings under 4.5 runs (+112 FanDuel)

This is a play on both starting pitchers.

Suarez has been overshadowed by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but he's been just as good as both aces in the postseason. In seven career playoff appearances, the left-hander has a 1.16 ERA. He pitched 8.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS and surrendered just four hits and one earned run. Suarez should have just as much success, if not more, against a worse D-Backs lineup.

Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaadt was superb in his first career playoff start at home. He gave up just two hits and no runs against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, and now he gets to face a Phillies lineup that hasn't seen him yet. It might take a few innings for Philadelphia to figure him out.

Ketel Marte over 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings)

Not many hitters in this Diamondbacks lineup have a ton of experience against Suarez, but Marte is batting .400 in 17 career plate appearances against the Phillies starter. The switch hitter was also much better batting from the right side all year, as he hit .313 against lefties and .259 against righties in the regular season.

No one on the Diamondbacks will be happier to face a left-handed starter than Marte, and he should be in for a big game at home.

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