Mariners lefty Robbie Ray undergoes Tommy John surgery

The Mariners provided an update Wednesday on left-hander Robbie Ray, who was reported last week to require season-ending flexor tendon surgery. 

“Ray, 31, had surgery [Wednesday] on his left elbow,” the press release reads. “The surgery was performed by Dr. Keith Meister at TMI Sports Medicine in Arlington, Texas. Dr. Meister performed a flexor tendon repair and reconstructed the Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) in Ray’s left arm.” 

The flexor tendon surgery was already reported upon but the UCL reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery, wasn’t publicly known prior to Wednesday.

In the short term, this news doesn’t change much for the Mariners, as they’ve already been planning on operating without Ray for the remainder of the year. But since TJS typically requires a recovery period of 14 to 18 months, this update seems to indicate the club will be without Ray for even longer, likely a few months into the 2024 season as well.

That’s obviously unwelcome news, as Ray has been one of the better pitchers in the league in recent seasons. After some inconsistency earlier in his career, he had a tremendous season with the Blue Jays in 2021. 

He posted an ERA of 2.84 in 32 starts with a 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate. He won the American League Cy Young award and parlayed that performance into a five-year, $115M deal with the Mariners.

His first year with Seattle was a bit of a drop-off from the previous season but still with plenty to like. He made 32 starts with a 3.71 ERA, striking out 27.4% of opponents, walking 8% and getting grounders at a 39.2% clip. 

That helped the Mariners break their postseason drought, making it into the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Unfortunately, he was only able to make a single start this year before landing on the injured list and likely won’t make another until midway through 2024.

The Mariners should still have a strong front four in the rotation between now and then as long as everyone is healthy. Luis Castillo and Marco Gonzales are both still under contract next year while both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are still many years from qualifying for free agency. 

The final spot is a little less certain since Chris Flexen has been struggling and is slated for free agency after this season anyway. 

Prospect Bryce Miller was called up recently to start an audition and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported that it wasn’t going to be just a spot start. That was before Miller debuted and tossed six innings against the A’s, allowing just one earned run on two hits and no walks while striking out 10. 

It’s best not to read too much into just one game, but given that the club planned on giving him a lengthy stay in the rotation anyway and he dominated his first time out, he seems to have a legitimate chance at securing a rotation spot going forward.