Disappointing '19 tempers expectations for Phillies. Now what?

The Phillies went all in last winter in their attempt to qualify for the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade. They signed outfielders Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen and pitcher Dave Robertson in free agency and traded for catcher J.T. Realmuto and shortstop Jean Segura. During the season, Philadelphia added veterans Jay Bruce, Jason Vargas, Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller and Jared Hughes. 

But the Phillies' high-priced makeover was a disaster, as they finished fourth (81-81) in the NL East, 16 games behind division-winner Atlanta. 

Now on the cusp of the 2020 season, major questions remain: Can the Phillies compete against the top-flight starting pitching of their division rivals? Is their offense too dependent on Harper and Realmuto? Should the Phillies tear down the foundation if they fail to make the playoffs again?

Over the winter, general manager Matt Klentak essentially doubled down, shelling out a fortune to sign shortstop Didi Gregorius and starting pitcher Zack Wheeler in free agency. The duo has the potential to dramatically raise Philadelphia's ceiling, but their additions are not necessarily home runs. Gregorius missed the first half of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and upon returning, he hit only .238. Wheeler, who had Tommy John surgery in 2015, was lights-out down the stretch last season for the Mets, but he had a 4.69 first-half ERA. 

Philadelphia's ace, Aaron Nola, is a legit No. 1 starter, but there's not much behind him and Wheeler. In two seasons in Philly, Jake Arrieta's ERA is 4.26. His 1.47 WHIP last year was his highest since 2010, and at 34 and with nearly 1,500 innings pitched, it's fair to wonder what the right-hander has left. Zach Eflin pitched well last season and has potential, but he has a long way to go to become a sure thing in the rotation. Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and Cole Irvin are competing to be the fifth starter, but they don't inspire confidence.

By contrast, Atlanta's starting staff features 2019 All-Star Mike Soroka as well as Mike Foltynewicz, Max Fried, Cole Hamels and a potentially rejuvenated Felix Hernandez. The Mets can run out 2019 All-Star Jacob deGrom as well as Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz and Rick Porcello. The defending champion Nationals are as good as anyone in MLB with Nos. 1-3 starters Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. No.  4 starter Anibal Sanchez was 11-8 last season with a 3.85 ERA.

Offensively, Philadelphia can score, but its lineup features major questions. McCutchen's left knee is still not healed enough, and the veteran will miss the early part of the season. Gregorius, Segura and infielder/outfielder Scott Kingery are nice complementary players but not stars — they've combined to make two All-Star teams in 18 years.

Gregorius' arrival necessitated a dramatic infield reshuffling, and it remains to be seen how well Segura — will he play second or third? —will adjust. Center fielder Adam Haseley, a first-round round pick in 2017, has only 222 at-bats in the big leagues. With the Phillies' wild-card hopes on life support last season, first baseman Rhys Hoskins, hit .161 in August and .170 in September. He was Harper's protection in the lineup. Not good.

The Phillies' bullpen also pales when compared to their division rivals'. Closer Hector Neris converted 28 of his 34 save chances with a 2.93 ERA in 2019. But after him, there are significant issues. Seranthony Dominguez was wonderful for Philly as a rookie in '18, but the righty missed nearly all last season with a UCL injury as did fellow righty Victor Arano.

To compare, the Braves have arguably the deepest bullpen in the National League, with Will Smith, Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Chris Martin and Luke Jackson, all capable of significantly shortening games. Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia had nightmarish 2019 seasons for the Mets, but if they can get closer to their career norms, New York's bullpen could be scary. The Nats bullpen is vulnerable, but it can hit you with Sean Doolittle, Daniel Hudson, Will Harris and Tanner Rainey.

So what happens if preseason projections hold true, and the Phillies again miss the playoffs? 

For starters, they'll have a huge decision to make regarding Realmuto, who will be a free agent after the season. Philadelphia acquired baseball's best catcher in a high-profile trade with the Marlins, and he instantly lived up to the hype. In 538 at-bats last season, he slashed .275/.328/.493 and set career-highs in HR (25), RBI (83), doubles (36), runs (92), and total bases (265). Defensively, he gunned down just under 47 percent of would be base-stealers and finished with a .992 fielding percentage. 

But signing Realmuto to a long-term extension will be costly. The last time a catcher of this magnitude was set to hit the market, the Twins shelled out $184 million over eight years to retain Joe Mauer. Realmuto soon turns 29, so an eight-year deal is probably out of the question, yet his new deal certainly will top Mauer's $23 million average annual value. Does that make sense for the Phillies, who signed Harper to a 13-year, $330 million deal? Perhaps not in a division that features the Mets and Braves — both of whom have outstanding, young cores — and the defending champion Nationals, who remain a power despite the loss of third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Angels.

Despite the question marks, the Phillies should be competitive in 2020 and maybe even be in the wild-card mix down the stretch. But winning about 80 games again will hardly be good enough in Philadelphia. If the Phillies fail to make the playoffs, it might be time for them to emulate Seattle: Strip down the team, draft well and figure a way to come back stronger.