Cubs take one of the biggest trade chips off market amid winning streak

The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned its season around since the All-Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and has won 10 of its last 11 games. The recent hot streak has propelled the Cubs to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL wild-card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% now.

Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the team has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for teams looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.

Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base.

While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfields. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at higher acquisition costs thanks to their additional years of control.

With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.

While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.

That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele and Kyle Hendricks at the front of the rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68M contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the Cubs would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.

That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play Sunday. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the team could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.

While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for them this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates whom the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.