Can the Twins Actually Quit Max Kepler?

As the weeks go by, Max Kepler is still a member of the Minnesota Twins. While Jon Morosi continues to reiterate his offseason report that the Twins are shopping Kepler and Jorge Polanco, Minnesota hasn’t moved either of them. Therefore, it’s fair to wonder if they can make a deal before spring training.

There is a market for both players. But when you look back at Minnesota’s history, it’s hard to see the Twins moving on from Kepler.

Kepler has been the Twins’ version of Copium since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took their front-office roles. The regime signed Kepler to a five-year, $35 million extension before the 2019 season, and he instantly rewarded them. Kepler hit .252/.336/.519 with 36 home runs and 90 RBI in 134 games as part of the Bomba Squad.

Many believed that 2019 would be a launching point for Kepler’s career, but it’s turned out to be a high-water mark. He had a disappointing 2020 season, hitting .228/.321/.439 with nine home runs and 23 RBI in 48 games. Then he followed it up with a .211/.306/.413 slash line, 19 homers and 54 RBI in 121 games in 2021.

Injuries hampered Kepler’s 2022 season, leaving him with a .227/.318/.348 batter’s line. He had nine homers, 43 RBI, and a career-low .666 OPS in 115 games. Kepler’s poor production led many fans to believe the Twins would trade him in the following offseason. But Minnesota gave him one last opportunity because of his advanced metrics.

Kepler’s traditional stats may be flawed, but his approach is one of the best in the majors. In 2022, he was in the 88th percentile with a 14.8 percent strikeout rate. He was also in the 84th percentile with an 11 percent walk rate. His 23.5 percent chase rate (80th percentile) and 19.9 percent whiff rate (78th percentile) were also favorable. And Kepler’s .266 expected batting average suggested that he deserved a better fate.

With his 11 outs above average ranking in the 97th percentile, he seemed like a buy-low candidate for teams looking for outfield help. But just as Kepler seemed to be on his way out of Minnesota, the Twins decided to invest in themselves by keeping him around in 2023.

Initially, that looked like a poor decision because Kepler struggled in the season’s opening months. A pair of injuries led to multiple stints on the injured list, and Kepler drew Rocco Baldelli‘s ire for missing a double steal signal in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last June.

A few days later, Kepler was hitting .188/.262/.361 with six home runs and 15 RBI in 39 games. With Matt Wallner crushing in the minors, it appeared that this was the moment the Twins would finally quit Kepler.

But that’s not what happened.

Kepler came alive and finally showed the form that had captivated the front office back in 2019. He hit .292/.363/.538 with 18 home runs and 51 RBI over his final 91 games. His advanced metrics indicated this wasn’t just a hot streak. According to Baseball Savant, Kepler ranked in the 75th percentile or higher in 10 categories in 2023 and began hitting for power with an expected slugging percentage of .503 (89th percentile).

For Twins fans who have watched Kepler over the past five seasons, this offseason feels like the perfect time to sell high. But that ignores Minnesota’s situation heading into the 2024 season.

Minnesota’s depth in the outfield is the biggest reason to keep Kepler around. While Polanco is battling for playing time next to young core members Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien and is trying to fight off Brooks Lee in the minors, the Twins don’t have the same depth in the corner outfield.

The Twins hope that Wallner can hold down a corner outfield spot next season. But with Byron Buxton expected to return to center field, they don’t have many major league-ready options outside of 2018 first-round pick Trevor Larnach.

Larnach owns a career .252/.366/.456 line with 18 homers and 56 RBI in 349 at-bats at Triple-A, but his minor-league production hasn’t translated to the major leagues. In 603 major league at-bats, Larnach is hitting .222/.315/.385 with 20 home runs and 86 RBI. Minnesota’s 2018 first-round pick is facing an important season in 2024.

If Larnach isn’t ready to go, the Twins fill that role with Austin Martin. The No. 5 pick in 2020 has hit .263/.387/.405 in 59 games with the Saints last season, but we don’t know how productive he’ll be in the big leagues.

The Twins could sign someone to fill Kepler’s role if they trade him. However, the remaining options are either too volatile (Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham) or too expensive (Teoscar Hernández, Joc Pederson). That means that if Minnesota traded Kepler, they would have to bring his replacement back in the deal, and there’s no sign that teams value Kepler as much as the Twins.

Consider that any team in MLB could have acquired Kepler for pennies on the dollar last year, but nobody could come up with a deal the Twins liked. Although Kepler erupted in the second half last season, general managers may look at how badly he struggled in the first half and be reluctant to send Minnesota anything significant in return.

It’s a different situation than the Twins experienced a year ago. Luis Arráez was a trade candidate, and teams were enamored with his upside after he became an All-Star and won his first batting title in 2022. Minnesota used Arráez to acquire Pablo López, but Kepler doesn’t have the same star power to bring back a major-league pitcher and a major-league outfielder.

It only takes one phone call to make a deal go through. But things become more complicated when the front office has a higher opinion of the player than anyone else in major league baseball. It creates a situation where the Twins can’t quit Kepler no matter how hard they try. That’s why Kepler has a good chance to be on Minnesota’s 2024 Opening Day roster.