NBA playoffs: Luka to have a monster night

Hey how about that! How's 2-0 on the NFL Draft sound to you? J.J. McCarthy did indeed fall to 10, and Bo Nix was taken easily in the first, going 12th to Denver. Lovely stuff on the niche market front.

We turn back to some more traditional betting looks as Friday is full of big playoff matchups, so buckle up.

Off we go toward some playoff dough

Time for Dallas to take control

We've been on record down in the Quick Picks section of Bark Bets that we believe in this Dallas team far more than the Los Angeles Clippers, and returning home with the series tied, we're expecting the Mavs to dictate how tonight goes. Off of that belief, there is really only one logical name to back ...

Luka Doncic to record Triple-Double (+310 FanDuel)

Luka has put up some monster performances when he plays a postseason game in Dallas. In the 12 such games in his young career, Doncic averages 31.2 points per game, 10.7 rebounds and 8.6 assists.

When he's hosting the Clippers, he looks even better.

Los Angeles has played six playoff games in Dallas against Doncic over the past four seasons. Doncic has two triple-doubles in those six games, and three times finished just shy, with these stat-lines:

• 29 points, 8 rebounds, 11 assists
• 44 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists
• 38 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists

We're expecting the Mavs star to put up a signature performance tonight, and we prefer the price here on a triple-double to his 52.5 PRA line at -112.

Expect more of the same in Los Angeles-Edmonton

Adrian Kempe 4+ shots (+144 FanDuel)

There's a strange phenomenon going on right now, where it seems Los Angeles' Adrian Kempe is contractually obligated to chuck the puck on net when he faces the Oilers. He now has 12 shots in the first two games of this series, 4+ in eight straight, and 4+ in 20 of the last 27 meetings, averaging 4.8 shots per game.

We have such a rich sample size of these two teams meeting in the playoffs, as this is the third-straight season they're doing so, and Kempe just keeps on delivering. Not only that, but sportsbooks just keep on handing him out at plus-money. Join the ride.

Zach Hyman goal (+125 FanDuel)

Speaking of going back to the consistent, Edmonton's Zach Hyman has been rolling this series, scoring four goals in two games. He has a very opportunistic role on this Oilers offense, sitting in front of the net and just ripping shots up close.

He's easily pacing Edmonton in high-danger scoring chances, and this series has shown no indications it's slowing down. Jump on Hyman to keep on finding the back of the net.

In the news ...

Top of the NFL Draft goes as expected, Falcons make a head-scratcher, first round dominated by offensive players — The first round of the NFL Draft is in the books, and for the most part, things went as expected by many. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Marvin Harrison Jr. went 1-2-3-4 to the Bears, Commanders, Patriots and Cardinals. It was a sign of things to come, as six quarterbacks and seven WRs went in Round 1, plus nine OLs and a tight end, meaning 23 of the 32 selections were on the offensive side of the ball. By far the biggest surprise of the night was Atlanta drafting QB Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 right after handing out $100 million guaranteed to Kirk Cousins. What in the world are the Falcons doing? Caleb Williams is currently +210 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, followed by Harrison (+600), Daniels (+1000) and J.J. McCarthy (+1000), who was scooped up by the Minnesota Vikings.

Joel Embiid drops 50 as Sixers take Game 3 over Knicks — Despite clearly being hobbled, Joel Embiid put on a performance for the ages Thursday, dropping 50 points in a 125-114 Sixers win over the Knicks. Philadelphia is -198 to win Game 4 on Sunday and +205 to come back and win this series. Elsewhere, the Magic took Game 3 to make it a 2-1 series, while Denver won again and are one game away from sweeping the Lakers for the second-straight postseason. 

Florida Panthers go up 3-0 over Lightning, Canes do the same vs. Isles — A few years ago, the Lightning swept the Panthers, and it seems Florida is poised to return the favor, taking Game 3 by a score of 5-3 in a game they mostly dominated from start to finish. The Panthers are -125 to finish the job tomorrow in their bid to return to the Stanley Cup Final. The East in general has yet to yield too many competitive series, as Carolina also beat the New York Islanders to move up 3-0. The Hurricanes and Panthers have been the two betting favorites in the East and seem poised for an Eastern Conference Final clash. 

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.