CFB Week 1 Top 25 betting guide

Week 0 was pretty uneventful unless you had a connection with the Nebraska Cornhuskers football programs where things are already at DefCon 1 just a game into the season.

This week we are blessed with some good matchups though. I suppose the headliner is Notre Dame at Ohio State on Saturday night, but I am more interested to see how Utah fares at Florida. Ohio State is a significant favorite at home and even if they lose they might be able to make a playoff run. The stakes are much higher for Utah. A win against even a mediocre Florida team will help them a lot. 

Speaking of the West Coast, I am curious to see how USC looks in its first game with its new coach and quarterback. Rice should be a soft landing spot, but first games can be funny.

Here is a betting look at all the games featuring ranked teams this week. 

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Friday, September 2

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans
Spread: Michigan State -22.5
Total: 54.5

Michigan State was one of the great stories of last season. They mined the portal for an undiscovered gem at running back, developed some players, and had their best season since they snuck into the playoffs years ago. Now they are looking for a repeat but it will be a difficult road trying to catch teams off guard in the Big Ten. At Western Michigan, they are hoping to be competitive in the MAC but this is more of a middle-tier team in that league. To have a chance they are going to have to really catch MSU off guard. 

This is a big line but I am leaning to the home side. With the quarterback returning the Spartans should have an easy transition into the season and I like their depth. I am looking for this to be a game where they build an early working margin and keep extending it. 

Score prediction: Michigan State 42 - Western Michigan 16
Take the home side, or the over. 

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Saturday, September 3

Colorado State Rams at Michigan Wolverines
Spread: Michigan -30.5
Total: 61.5

Michigan has done the weird thing of declaring two different starting quarterbacks. I am not sure what to make of it but it is probably not going to hurt them in this contest. The Big Blue defense should once again be elite (despite losses) and even if they are not as good as they were a year ago we probably won't notice in this game. Colorado State turned things over to coach Jay Norvell this offseason. He made the rare move going from one team in a conference to another and Colorado State is probably going to get better in time but this is too soon to ask this much of them.

The Wolverines are going to be one of the best teams in America again this season and I am expecting that to be evident pretty quickly in this one. I am not going to back Michigan to win like this again this season but this is not going to be close.

Score Prediction: Michigan 49 - Colorado State 10
Take Big Blue to win with ease. 

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NC State Wolfpack at East Carolina Pirates
Spread: NC State -11.5
Total: 51.5

NC State is looking to start what could be the best season in program history. They have a strong offense led by QB Devin Leary and their defense would be the best in a lot of conferences (just not in the ACC with Clemson around). The Wolfpack should win with ease but this is also a program that does not always do great with expectations. At ECU, they might be on the rise in the AAC but they are still in that middle tier. Their offense might be good enough to scare NC State a little in this one. 

If NC State is what we think they are this should be a cakewalk. I want to believe they are and recommend getting in early on the Wolfpack. This one might get close to a couple of touchdowns and is still a good side at that point too. This team can beat up mediocre and bad teams. 

Score Prediction: NC State 41 - East Carolina 17
The Wolfpack and the over looks good. 

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Oregon Ducks vs Georgia Bulldogs
Spread: Georgia -16.5
Total: 53.5

This one would be super interesting on its own as the defending champs face a team capable of beating them off the hop. Then you throw in that new Oregon head coach Dan Lanning was the DC at Georgia and you have to think the Ducks might have more of a chance than that line suggests. Georgia is looking to prove that they can just reload and I believe they can. Last I checked, 2023 mock drafts have  3 Dawgs in the first round. That once-in-a-lifetime defense is going to be fine. 

This one feels a little rich but you have to remember that the game is practically a home game for the Dawgs and this season Georgia's offense might be better this season than it was a year ago. I believe UGA can win each half by 10 points. Don't you?

Score Prediction: Georgia 37 - Oregon 17
Take the Dawgs. Look for them on the first half line too.

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UTEP Miners at Oklahoma Sooners
Spread: Oklahoma -31.5
Total: 56.5

The Sooners are a massive curiosity with Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams now at USC. Brent Venables looks like a guy who should be able to have success as a head coach and he has brought in an OC that will keep things flowing and former UCF QB Dillon Gabriel, who played in a Jeff Lebby offense there way back when. This is the first we are going to see how it all comes together. UTEP was improved last season and they might have continuity on their side, but this is going to be a tough hill for them to climb.

This line is massive but I think the oddsmakers might have forgotten all of the offseason turnover that has happened in Norman. I do not think the Sooners are in trouble here but there might be some moments where it is just not clicking. Enough to keep the Miners close, enough.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 41 - UTEP 14
Take the Miners plus the points. 

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Cincinnati Bearcats at Arkansas Razorbacks
Spread: Arkansas -6.5
Total: 51.5

These are two of the great stories from last season. Arkansas definitely made some progress in the SEC while Cincinnati ran its dream season all the way into the playoffs. Then it lost 9 players to the pros so a continuation of the success they have had over the last couple of seasons is not as likely. Arkansas has more returning but the Hogs still leave you wondering a little while Cincinnati has more proof of concept under coach Luke Fickell. 

It is easy to make the Razorbacks home favorites, even last year they might have been had these teams met down in Fayetteville. I am going to watch this one closely though and see if it can cross that magic 7 point barrier. If it does, the visitors might be the play. I am not ready to write off the Bearcats as sliding super far given the way they play defense and compete over all. 

Score Prediction: Arkansas 30 - Cincinnati 23
I like the over more than either of the sides in this one. 

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Houston Cougars at UTSA Roadrunners
Spread: Houston -4.5
Total: 61.5

I love this matchup in the opener. UTSA was another one of those great stories from a season ago, and they were able to hold onto their coach too. At Houston, they won a ton of games a year ago too, and have their sights set on sliding into the "vacancy" at the top of the AAC if Cincinnati falters. They have good balance and that is why they should win this one with relative ease. UTSA has the core of their offense from last year so they are in great shape even if they can't win this one. 

Houston has some hype to it but not so much that I see them coming out flat. This is a team with strong continuity that has been building to the 2022 season and it is just getting started. This game might start 7-7 before the Cougars slowly and steadily pull away.

Score Prediction: Houston 31 - UTSA 16
I am hot on the Cougars this week. This number is cheap. 

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Troy Trojans at Ole Miss Rebels
Spread: Ole Miss -21.5
Total: 57.5

The days of Troy really getting under the skin of better opponents seem to have passed. They have not sunk in the Sun Belt too much, just to the middle tier. As such, Ole Miss, even breaking in a new quarterback should not be in too much trouble in the opener. I think Lane Kiffin is going to hand over the reigns to Jaxson Dart, the USC transfer. Either way, look for the Rebels to have a fun and effective offense again this season. That is what they have become under coach Kiffin. 

I have a strong belief that Kiffin will get the offense to where he wants it to be again this season and that should be enough for the Rebels to win easily at home. Troy just won't have enough firepower to keep up. 

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 41 - Troy 21
I might look to back an Ole Miss team total in this spot. 

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BYU Cougars at USF Bulls
Spread: BYU -12.5
Total: 58.5

BYU is always underrated but once again they should be very good, especially on offense where the quarterback returns and they should be able to replace one of the most productive running backs in the country. It is tricky sometimes to know where BYU rates against the really good programs but USF is not one of those. They are hoping having a legit quarterback can help them be respectable his season. They have Gerry Bohanon, who helped Baylor win a lot of games last season.

I am not keen to spot a home team so many points in the first game of the season but is hard to look anywhere but the BYU side in this game. I am OK with having to win each half by a TD to get the cover. They probably win by even more than that. 

Score Prediction: BYU 38 - USF 20
Just because you don't know a ton about BYU doesn't mean you have to shy away. 

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Rice Owls at USC Trojans
Spread: USC -32.5
Total: 61.5

USC has completely transformed its program. Lincoln Riley is an elite offensive coach and he has quickly put together a roster that could have one of the best offenses in the country. They are loaded on that side of the ball. The defense has a lot of questions though. Rice is going to be a bit of a sacrificial lamb in this spot. There is not much expected of the Owls but everyone is going to be watching this one.

This is a massive number to cover, especially for a team like USC which may not be playing complimentary football early in the season. I like the Trojans to cover but even more, I like the over. USC will score more than 40 points. Perhaps a lot more.

Score Prediction: USC 56 - Rice 13
The total feels like the smarter play for this one.   

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Utah Utes at Florida Gators
Spread: Utah -2.5
Total: 51.5

Love this game as a chance for Utah to make a bit of a statement. Last year's team was probably better, but they are still going to be plenty good this season, especially on offense where they can be physical and creative all at once. Florida is looking for a reset with a new coach in Billy Napier. He is going with Anthony Richardson at QB and the sky is the limit there. There is not much experience though. Florida is not as deep or as talented as they have been in the past. 

Utah is favored, which is awesome because when they win it won't be considered an upset. I agree with that and remember that this game is on campus in the Swamp, so the Utes are rated even that much more highly. They might not run away from the Gators but they should be in control throughout. 

Score Prediction: Utah 28 - Florida 16
Utah is one of my favorite favorites this week. 

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Miami Redhawks at Kentucky Wildcats
Spread: Kentucky -16.5
Total: 53.5

The Wildcats are a legit football program right now, did you not see QB Will Levis projected to go in the first round of the NFL draft? I don't think that has happened with a UK QB since Tim Couch. The Wildcats are solid on both sides of the ball and should be able to outwork the Redhawks who are MAC solid, not SEC solid. The Redhawks are going to be outclassed but because UK is not explosive this game might look closer than it really is. 

I love backing the Wildcats in underdog roles in the SEC but I am not going to back off them in this spot just because we are not used to thinking about this team that way. They will be super physical in this one and Miami will not be able to match that.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 34 - Miami 10
The home side looks like the only play here. 

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Utah State Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide
Spread: Alabama -42.5
Total: 62.5

Alabama is considered the top team in the country heading into the season. That is hard to argue with given their talent, history, and coaching. You can make an argument they have the best offensive player and defensive player in the game in Bryce Young and Will Anderson. The only thing that Utah State really has going for it is that they played last week so rust will not be an excuse against Alabama. The Aggies might win the Mountain West but are still no match for the Crimson Tide. 

This is a massive number so the best bet is to probably stay away but it actually feels justified, as much a number like this can be. Alabama should be able to name the final score. 

Score Prediction: Alabama 59 - Utah State 10
I would lean to the total (over) if I was making a play. 

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Ohio State -17.5
Total: 59.5

These are two of the biggest college football brands but the number tells the story. Ohio State is going to be one of the best offensive teams in the country and is expected to be better on defense too this season. At Notre Dame, there is a lot of excitement (and talent) but the coach and QB are untested. Their reputation over the last few seasons has been to beat teams up to a certain level and then wilt. Ohio State is in the class of teams that have usually given them trouble and this is a tough spot. 

I am not sold on Ohio State as being automatic for the playoffs this season. Nevertheless, I think they are not going to have too much trouble against a Notre Dame team that is not going to be good enough to keep up with the Buckeyes. ND will get some stops but scoring enough it going to be a challenge. 

Score Prediction: Ohio State 38 - Notre Dame 16
The under might be better than the side in this one.

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Monday, September 5

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Spread: Clemson -22.5
Total: 48.5

Clemson might be playoff worthy this season but we are not going to know after this first game. They are going to have one of the best defenses in the country this season and it should shine from the first game against a weak GT team. For Tech, it is hard to see where any real progress is being made. The Yellow Jackets say they are still transitioning but at some poin,t you are just a bad program, right  Clemson can use this game to give their offense some reps. 

Spotting a Clemson opponent this many points is tough because their offense has a lot to prove. Still, that is the way to go and the guys on defense should make it easier for the offense to have some success in the opener.

Score Prediction: Clemson 38 - Georgia Tech 7
Tech might be viable in the future even if this one looks ugly. 

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Matt Wiesenfeld has been handicapping games and espousing sports wisdom online for more than a decade, writing thousands of articles to help bettors understand and play the market. Matt loves to bet on, write about, and engage on MLB, the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball.

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