NCAA Tournament Midwest Region: Favorite, sleeper, best matchup and more

Favorite of the Region: Purdue

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Purdue is able to get out of the Round of 64 this year. Once again, expectations are set sky high for the Boilermakers, who are priced as the obvious favorite (+170) to win the Midwest.

Purdue also fits the credentials of a possible NCAA championship roster. Matt Painter’s squad ranks inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which every winner — minus the 2014 Connecticut Huskies — have boasted on their resume since KenPom started tracking data in 2002.

The storyline to watch is the health of point guard Braden Smith. After suffering a calf injury against Michigan State, Smith suited up for the Big Ten semifinals, scoring just seven points in 36 minutes. He did add 10 assists in the eventual loss.

If Smith is healthy, this Purdue roster is nearly identical to last season. But the addition of Lance Jones helps take away the one flaw the Boilermakers often ran into — opposing guards being able to overpower the smaller and weaker Smith/Fletcher Loyer.

We’ve also seen the Boilermakers go from an average-shooting team to the No. 2 perimeter offense in basketball. Obviously the presence of 7-foot-4 Zach Edey often leads to double teams and open shooters, but this year, Purdue has actually been hitting the shots.

Edey is one of the most dominant college basketball players of all time, drawing nearly 10 fouls per 40 minutes. Unsurprisingly, he leads the team in scoring (24.4), rebounds (11.7) and blocks (2.2). Operating in the mid-range is key against Edey, who parks near the rim.

ShotQuality grades Purdue’s 3-point defense as below average. While teams try to beat the Boilermakers by running pick-and-rolls to get a mismatch with a smaller, faster guard against Edey, it hasn’t come easy.

Edey is a plus defender and Purdue as a whole is 29th in defending the pick-and-roll. This is a top-25 half-court defense, struggling most in transition — when Edey is not set.

An off-shooting night and doubling Edey is the key to slowing Purdue. However, this is not the same Boilermakers team that lost to a 16 seed last year.

Ultimate Winner: Creighton

I really wanted to take Gonzaga because of how it's trended of late, but another team quietly playing its best basketball of the season is Creighton.

This is also the team best suited to take down Purdue — if the Jays make it to the Elite Eight.

In the last month, Creighton ranks as the No. 3 team in the country, per Bart Torvik. The only two teams ahead of it are Houston and Connecticut.

Creighton’s offense has continued to explode from deep, but it’s the defense (18th in the last month) that's begun to click. Creighton deploys the infamous Kalk Drop, placing 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner at the rim as a major deterrent.

We saw last year how effective this defense could be in the Big Dance, and it took a 2-of-17 shooting night from 3 to ultimately fall to San Diego State.

Rather than being a disruptive defense, the Jays don’t look to turn you over. They force long possessions, run you off the 3-point line (just 27.2% of attempts come from deep) and don't foul (No. 1 in FTA/FGA).

Rarely will second-chance opportunities come, and the way to beat this defense is by operating in the mid-range.

Creighton’s draw is also very appealing. Greg McDermott’s squad should have no issues taking down Akron, and then draw another plus matchup against either an overrated South Carolina team or a bid-stealing Oregon squad.

On the offensive end, this is a veteran-led team that doesn't turn the ball over. The Jays are third in effective field goal percentage and elite inside.

They also have multiple high-level scorers. We saw Steven Ashworth take over a game (20 points against UConn), as well as Baylor Scheierman (20+ against Marquette, twice). That's in addition to Trey Alexander.

This is an extremely balanced offense that rarely makes mistakes.

Yes, if chalk holds, Creighton has to go through both Tennessee and Purdue. Dalton Knecht is one of the best scorers in college basketball, but the Jays will run him off the 3-point line and funnel him inside, where Kalkbrenner awaits.

We’ve seen time and time again that the Vols struggle outside of Knecht, and this team is vulnerable if he doesn’t have a big night. Tack on Rick Barnes’ notable struggles in March, and I'm buying Creighton.

The Kalk drop should also be an issue for Purdue, forcing the guards to make plays rather than Edey. While Kalkbrenner isn't the strongest, his length should stir some issues for Edey. There will also be minimal 3-point opportunities, taking away the Boilermakers’ main strategy.

All this to say, don’t sleep on the Jays making a repeat run in the tournament. They're trending up at the right time, and this is a talented roster, one that ranks inside the top 10 in experience.

They have the perfect outlook to be a Final Four team and they also fit the KenPom mold, ranking inside the top 25 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.

Potential Bracket Busting Team: McNeese State

To say that I'm upset by McNeese State’s draw is an understatement. This was a team that I had circled as a Cinderella, especially after it boasted dominant wins against the likes of VCU, UAB and Michigan in non-conference play.

Led by former LSU head coach Will Wade, the Cowboys shredded the Southland Conference. This is an elite offense (51st in Adjusted Efficiency) that can shoot lights out from the perimeter. Four starters shoot over 40% from 3.

Former TCU transfer Shahada Wells leads the charge on both ends of the floor, as he tops the team in both scoring (17.8) and assists (4.8). Perhaps his best attribute, though, is his defensive intensity (third in the country in steal rate).

I'm worried that McNeese State won’t be well-equipped for the Gonzaga interior. It ranks outside the top 330 in average height, with no player taller than 6-foot-9. The Zags’ main lineup often features three players 6-foot-8 or taller.

McNeese is more than capable of going shot for shot with the Zags, but in the last month, Gonzaga ranks inside the top 15 overall, per Bart Torvik.

If the Cowboys are able to upset Gonzaga — which I’m weary on — I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off a deep run here. Kansas has its own issues with depth and injury concerns, and this isn't the same dominant Bill Self team of years past.

With just one loss since December, McNeese has the perfect veteran leader in Wells and a strong surrounding cast on the offensive end around him.

Best Matchup of the First Round: Gonzaga vs. McNeese State

It’s fitting that the potential bracket-busting team in this region has the best matchup of the first round. I'm super excited about this game, both to see how well McNeese plays against a red-hot Gonzaga team and also how the Zags fair against an elite offense.

It'll be intriguing to see how McNeese defends the glass against the Zags’ physicality. The Cowboys have struggled when it comes to limiting second-chance opportunities (244th), which is an issue against the likes of Anton Watson and Graham Ike.

Gonzaga struggles defending the perimeter (185th in the country), which opens the door for McNeese to both space the floor and let it fire from 3.

McNeese looks to attack downhill and Gonzaga’s defense is not one to force turnovers. The possessions will be there for the Cowboys, so it all comes down to execution. The Zags would rather play you straight up, contain the defensive glass and limit free-throw trips.

This game sets up to be a must-watch on Thursday. I lean toward the Bulldogs, but I’ve broken down how much I love this McNeese State team before.